Figure 1. Two separate SSMs were set up, one for females and the other for males. The models were applied to all encounter histories of females and males, including those with zero and multiple partner-changes. For clarity, the model diagram is divided in two panels. In (a), we represent the transitions of the ‘old’ states and the first year ‘new’ states. In (b), we depict the transitions of the ‘new’ states, which revert to ‘old’ after the third breeding attempt (see below and §2d in the main text). The states are: successful (SDated) or failed (FOld) birds breeding with the old mate; successful (SThe newest) or failed (FThis new) individuals breeding with a new mate, where a relationship is defined as ‘new’ for the first 3 years (S/Fnew1, S/Fnew2, S/Fnew3), after which the individuals automatically transition to the ‘old’ states; non-breeding (NonB), if they skipped breeding and their partner was alive; widowed (Wid), if their previous mate died and they did not breed with a new one. In both panels, the same names are used for the same states-i.e. NonB in (b) is the same state as in (a). The different colours are used to represent successful and failed breeders (both with an old and a new mate), non breeders and widowed. The transition probabilities between states (?), shown in the equation boxes at the bottom of (a), are driven by state-specific parameters. The complete set of state-specific parameters, determining the transitions between states, were: probability of retaining the previous mate (breed); probability of breeding after mate-change (breedKey); breeding success with the first mate (succOld) or with subsequent mates (succThis new); individual survival (fa); partner survival (fmate). In the equation boxes, the breed parameters for the different states are represented using bold underlined text to highlight that, within the model formulation, the environmental effects on the state-specific breed parameters were quantified using logistic regression. (Online version in colour.)
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Inside both the men and women SSM preparations, to investigate environmentally friendly people out of divorce proceedings, i put univariate logistic regression to investigate the effects out of SSTA and Wind to the probability of preserving the earlier lover (breed). The importance of the fresh covariates was examined having fun with inclusion probability details w (electronic supplementary point).
As described above, this SSM was used to analyse the encounter histories of all individuals in our colonies, also including those that never changed mate. This was advantageous for the retrieval of unbiased ‘breed’ and ‘breedSwitch‘ parameters. However, the breeding success parameters estimated in this model were not conditional on mate-change having occurred. Moreover, owing to model convergence issues, it was not possible to specify different breeding success parameters for birds that changed mate owing to divorce and owing to widowing. Therefore, separately for females and males, we designed a second SSM (electronic supplementary material) to quantify the breeding success before and after mate-change, using different parameters for birds that changed mate owing to divorce and widowing. To ensure that the estimated breeding success rates were conditional on mate-change having occurred and in order to simplify the model formulation and reach model convergence, we retained in the analysis only those individuals that changed mate once owing to widowing or divorce.
(e) Condition space design execution
Brand new SSM studies was performed on JAGS application done due to R through the R2JAGS plan . The brand new ple from the rear delivery each best American Sites dating sites and every SSM factor. For everybody designs, we generated around three stores with a minimum of 31 one hundred thousand iterations. We made certain your organizations was basically well-mixed hence the new Gelman–Rubin diagnostic overlap fact is actually lower than step one.02 for everybody details.
